Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 enero 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Jan 24 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 024 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Jan 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 939 (S04W69)
continued to produce small flares and has shown some simplification
since yesterday. A long duration B9 flare occurred at 24/1452 UTC
from beyond the east limb, near SE07. The flare was associated with
a CME visible in the NASA LASCO data. The source of this activity is
presumed to be the returning area of old Region 933 (S06, L=034).
Sunspots are not yet visible at the limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to increase
over the next few days as the new region rotates onto the visible
disk, C-class flares are expected and M-class flares may occur,
depending on the complexity of the area.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Jan a 27 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Jan 080 Previsto 25 Jan-27 Jan 080/080/085 Media de 90 Días 24 Jan 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Jan 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Jan a 27 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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