Viendo archivo del martes, 16 enero 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Jan 16 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 016 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jan 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 938
(N02E22) produced two C-class flares during the period. The largest
was a C4/1n event occurring at 16/0242Z and a C1 event occurring
later in the period at 16/1611Z. This region continues to show
steady decay in sunspot area and exhibits a magnetic beta
configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 938 continues to exhibit the
potential for producing isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels with occasional periods of active
conditions on 17 and 18 January due to the high speed stream.
Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 19
January as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| Clase M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jan 079 Previsto 17 Jan-19 Jan 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 16 Jan 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 014/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 012/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 012/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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