Viendo archivo del domingo, 10 diciembre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Dec 10 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 344 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Dec 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S05E06) was
only responsible for several B-class flares. However, this region
has developed a delta within the southern penumbra of the leader
spot and is now classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with
approximately 440 millionths of area.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE is
currently elevated around 620 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event crossed below 100 pfu's at 10/1220 UTC and is decreasing. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 11 December. On 12 and 13
December, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end in the next 24
to 48 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 80% | 40% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Dec 090 Previsto 11 Dec-13 Dec 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 10 Dec 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Dec 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Dec 008/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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