Viendo archivo del martes, 21 marzo 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Mar 21 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 080 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Mar 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 862 (S07W39) produced five low level C-class flares; the largest of which was a C2.5 that occurred at 21/0944 UTC. Region 862 has shown little change in area over the last 24 hours and maintains a beta gamma magnetic configuration.IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare from Region 862.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods
were due to continued effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 and 23 March. On 24 March,
quiet to unsettled conditions with possible isolated active levels
are expected as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into
geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Mar a 24 Mar
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Mar 077 Previsto 22 Mar-24 Mar 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 21 Mar 080
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Mar 014/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Mar 012/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 008/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Mar a 24 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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