Viendo archivo del miércoles, 27 julio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 27 2205 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 208 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jul 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M3.7 flare was
observed at 27/0502 UTC with an associated Type II and Type IV radio
sweep, and a 800 sfu Tenflare. This event was correlated with a
full halo CME observed by LASCO imagery from around the east limb.
This activity indicates the likely return of old Region 786
(N10,L=56) which is due to return on the visible solar disk 28 July.
The only visible numbered spot group on the disk at this time is
Region 791 (N13W06). It remains a beta magnetic classification and
has decreased slightly in both area and sunspot count.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The returning region on the east limb may produce C-
and M-class events with a chance for an isolated X-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active conditions. In the past 24
hours the solar wind speed has increased from around 300 km/s to
above 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating southward to -12 nT.
This may be the onset of a high speed stream from a recurrent
coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active
periods as the coronal hole high speed stream continues to be
geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Jul 091 Previsto 28 Jul-30 Jul 100/105/110 Media de 90 Días 27 Jul 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jul 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Jul 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 010/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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