Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 julio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 16 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 197 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jul 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 790
(S10W80) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at 16/0338Z. It was
also the source for a very long duration C7 flare that occurred
between 15/2010Z and 16/0005Z. A Type II radio sweep occurred in
association with a C2 flare that occurred at 16/0714Z from Region
790, although LASCO imagery showed little associated CME activity.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 790 remains capable of producing an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An active period occurred at the Boulder magnetometer between
16/0600 and 0900Z. A weak transient signature was observed at the
ACE spacecraft near 16/0100Z with no significant geomagnetic effects
resulting. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on
14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z, remains
in-progress. The proton flux has been on a gradual decrease and was
near 11 pfu at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated minor storm
conditions may be possible with the onset of the anticipated
transient from the CME activity that occurred on 14 July. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the
period on 17 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jul a 19 Jul
| Clase M | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 99% | 15% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jul 076 Previsto 17 Jul-19 Jul 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 16 Jul 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jul 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 010/012-005/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jul a 19 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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