Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 junio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jun 15 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 166 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 776 (S05W64) produced a
C2.2 flare at 1843 UTC. Region 775 (N09W74) continues to show fair
flare potential but will rotate around the west limb on 16 June.
Region 776 will rotate off on 17 June. Two new regions were
numbered today. Newly numbered Region 778 (N07W38) developed into a
Cro beta group. Newly numbered Region 779 (S17E08) emerged and
developed rapidly into a Dai beta spot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz was sustained
southward between -5 and -10 nT from 15/0500 to 15/1200 UTC. This
resulted in minor storm levels between 15/0600 and 15/0900 UTC.
Conditions have been at unsettled to active levels since 0900 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods on 16 June as a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream rotates into a geoeffective position. Isolated minor to
major storming is possible on 17 June due to the effects of CME
activity associated with the C4 and C7 flares on 14 June.
Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active on 18
June
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jun 095 Previsto 16 Jun-18 Jun 095/095/090 Media de 90 Días 15 Jun 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 012/020-020/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 05% |
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