Viendo archivo del domingo, 12 junio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jun 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 163 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jun 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 775 (N10W32)
produced two C-class flares, a C3.5/Sf at 0236 UTC and a C3.0/Sf at
1609 UTC. Both flares were long duration events. No significant
development was observed from the regions on the active disk, and no
new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance of M-class activity from Region 775.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A minor
transient was observed at ACE at 0650 UTC, followed by an increase
in solar wind speed from 300 km/s to around 500 km/s. Subsequent
active conditions were observed. At 1600 UTC Bz began a period of
consistently southward orientation of -15 nT, which continued to the
time of this report and led to minor storming late in the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Continued southward
Bz observed late on 12 June will likely result in minor and isolated
major storming early on 13 June. Activity should subside late on 13
June. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 and 15 June,
with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jun a 15 Jun
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Jun 103 Previsto 13 Jun-15 Jun 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 12 Jun 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jun 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Jun 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 010/025-008/020-006/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jun a 15 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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