Viendo archivo del viernes, 27 mayo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 May 27 2220 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 147 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 May 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 767 (S08W02)
produced an M1/2f and associated tenflare at 27/1230 UTC. This
region also produced a C8 flare at 26/2139 UTC. A type IV radio
sweep was associated with this C8 event and a faint CME was observed
on LASCO imagery. Region 767 continues to develop in both size and
magnetic complexity, and is now nearing 400 millionths of white
light area.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 767 has the potential for further M-class
activity. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), a large and moderately
complex region during its last rotation, is due to rotate onto the
visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storming. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective
position on 28 May. The most disturbed periods will likely occur on
29 and 30 May as the recent CMEs from Region 767 are expected to
impact the geomagnetic field.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 May a 30 May
| Clase M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 May 096 Previsto 28 May-30 May 100/105/110 Media de 90 Días 27 May 091
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 May 001/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 May 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 015/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 May a 30 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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