Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 mayo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 May 15 0020 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 134 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 May 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 758 (S10E90) has
now rotated off the visible limb, and Region 759 (N11W07) has
continued to produce several C-class events. The greater than 10
MeV solar particle flux at the time of this report had reached a
maximum of 338 PFU on 14 May at 1945Z, and remains high.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 759 continues to have a high potential for M-class
activity, and slight chance for further proton-producing flare
activity. The current energetic proton flux is expected to remain
elevated through 16 May.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels from 15 through 16
May, with a slight chance of an isolated period of major storm
levels. The flare from Region 759 on 13 May at 1657Z, produced a
significant, Earth-directed, coronal mass ejection. The shock is
expected to arrive late on the 15th, and remain geoeffective through
the 16th.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 May a 17 May
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 May 100 Previsto 15 May-17 May 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 14 May 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 May 021/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 May 010/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 045/060-040/045-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 May a 17 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 45% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 25% | 05% |
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