Viendo archivo del domingo, 27 marzo 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Mar 27 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 086 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Mar 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 745 (N12W24) continues to slowly decay. No significant activity was observed on the solar disk or limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. Just two small and magnetically simple sunspot groups exist on the visible disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. Solar wind speed, which is elevated due to a high speed coronal hole stream, is in decline. The wind speed began the period near 650 km/s, but gradually weakened to around 550 km/s. The greater that 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated active periods are possible on 28 March.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Mar a 30 Mar
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Mar 078
  Previsto   28 Mar-30 Mar  080/080/080
  Media de 90 Días        27 Mar 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Mar  012/016
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  010/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  010/015-008/012-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Mar a 30 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%25%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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