Viendo archivo del jueves, 10 marzo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Mar 10 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 069 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Mar 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N13W11)
produced a C7.3 flare at 1142 UTC. No significant development was
observed from active regions on the visible disk, and no new regions
were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 741 and 742 (S05E31) may produce isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at
high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions
are possible late on 13 March due to the arrival of a recurrent high
speed solar wind stream as a small coronal hole rotates into
geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Mar a 13 Mar
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Mar 102 Previsto 11 Mar-13 Mar 110/110/115 Media de 90 Días 10 Mar 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Mar 013/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 008/010-005/010-005/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Mar a 13 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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