Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 febrero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Feb 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 047 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Feb 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C1.1 flare at 1637UTC
from Region 735 (S07W06). Region 735 has developed a weak delta
configuration just to the south of the main leader spot.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance of an M class flare from Region 735.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Conditions
were initially quiet but attained unsettled to active levels after
0900 UTC. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed in the solar
wind data at about 15/2120 UTC, and was followed by oscillations in
the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz in the range from -8
to +5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for 17 February. An increase to
unsettled to active is expected for 18 February due to a coronal
hole. Conditions should return to mostly unsettled on 19 February.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Feb 113 Previsto 17 Feb-19 Feb 110/105/100 Media de 90 Días 16 Feb 101
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 001/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/012-015/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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