Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 016 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W15) produced
several flares throughout the day. The largest was an X2/3B at
15/2302 UTC. This flare was associated with significant radio output
that included 6400 sfu at 2695 MHz and type II/IV radio sweeps.
There was also an asymmetric full halo CME associated with this
event. The region remains large and magnetically complex, showing
little structural changes since this major flare. New Regions 721
(S03E14) and 722 (N19E04) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be high
to very high. Region 720 appears capable of additional major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A proton
event at greater than 10 MeV began at 16/0210 UTC in response to the
X2 flare mentioned in Part IA and remains in progress. Peak flux
observed so far was 312 pfu at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to increase to major to severe storm levels within the
next several hours with the arrival of the first of at least two
expected CMEs generated over the past few days by Region 720. The
proton event is expected to continue in progress.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 99% | 80% | 75% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jan 145 Previsto 17 Jan-19 Jan 150/155/160 Media de 90 Días 16 Jan 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 011/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 050/060-030/030-030/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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