Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 13 2350 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 013 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 718 (S07E07) produced
several C-class flares; the largest was a C4.2/Sf flare at 13/1712.
Region 720 (N13E24) has shown significant growth in area and sunspot
number, however, only low level B-class activity has been associated
with the region thus far. This region is now 1080 millionths with a
beta delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events.
Energetic activity is possible from Region 720 due to its rapid
development.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions were
due to the persistence of a high speed stream. The solar wind speed
at ACE has decreased from approximately 720 km/s to 650 km/s during
the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jan a 16 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jan 116 Previsto 14 Jan-16 Jan 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 13 Jan 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jan 018/030 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 008/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jan a 16 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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