Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 001 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 715 (N05E21)
produced an X1.7 at 01/0031 UTC with an associated Type IV radio
sweep and a Type II radio sweep (760 km/s). A Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME) may have been produced in association with this flare, but
could not be confirmed due to the unavailability of solar imagery.
Region 715 has decayed slightly in size and magnetic complexity, and
now maintains a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 715 may produce M-class and isolated X-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days. Active
conditions are expected on 2-3 January from the effects of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream, and from
potential effects of CME shocks associated with the M-class flares
observed 30 and 31 December. Isolated minor storming mid-day on 3
January and into 4 January is possible from a CME shock associated
with today's X-class flare. Activity should subside late on 4
January to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Jan a 04 Jan
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Jan 099 Previsto 02 Jan-04 Jan 100/095/095 Media de 90 Días 01 Jan 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Dec 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Jan 012/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 015/020-020/030-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Jan a 04 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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