Viendo archivo del martes, 21 diciembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Dec 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 356 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Dec 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 713 (S08E22)
has produced several B-class flares and retains its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from
Region 713.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated period
of active to minor storm conditions observed at 21/1200 UTC. Solar
wind data indicated a possible co-rotating interaction region
signature during this period. Solar wind speed ranged from around
350 to 490 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating to -14 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated
periods of active conditions on 22-23 December due to coronal hole
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 24
December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Dec 101 Previsto 22 Dec-24 Dec 100/105/105 Media de 90 Días 21 Dec 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 008/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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