Viendo archivo del domingo, 19 diciembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Dec 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 354 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Dec 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 713 (S10E46) produced a
single C1 flare at 19/0414Z. A faint CME off the southeast limb was
likely associated with this flare, but is not expected to be
geoeffective. Region 712 (S11E24), the only other spot group on the
visible disk, was quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 713.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed was in gradual
decline and finished the period near 400 km/s. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 22 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Dec a 22 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Dec 094 Previsto 20 Dec-22 Dec 095/100/100 Media de 90 Días 19 Dec 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Dec 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Dec a 22 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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