Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 noviembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Nov 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 324 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Nov 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C4.9 flare was observed at
19/0512 UTC from Region 700, located at N04 on the West limb.
Region 700 was responsible for several lesser C-flares during the
reporting period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
increased from approximately 330 km/s to 400 km/s during the
reporting period. Total magnetic field increased to approximately
18 nT, however, Bz has remained predominantly positive. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions on
20 and 21 November due to the effects from a geoeffective coronal
hole stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 22 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Nov a 22 Nov
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Nov 102 Previsto 20 Nov-22 Nov 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 19 Nov 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/012-010/015-004/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Nov a 22 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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