Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 noviembre 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 311 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Nov 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region 696 (N09W08) produced an M9/2n major flare at 06/0034Z. This flare had an associated Tenflare of 2700 sfu's, a Type IV spectral radio sweep, a Type II spectral radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 523 km/sec, strong discrete frequency radio bursts, and a partial halo CME seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery. A impulsive M1 x-ray event occurred later in the period at 06/1953Z. This region continues to show growth in penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity. Region 693 (S15W57) continues to decay and exhibits a simple north-south magnetic inversion line. Regions 697 (N05W52) and 698 (S10W42) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels for the next three days due to the complexity of Region 696.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The ACE spacecraft indicates that there should be a shock passage early on 07 November allowing for minor to major storm conditions due to the full halo CME resulting from the M5 event on 03 November. A weaker shock may also arrive later on 07 November due to the long duration C6/Sf event that resulted in a partial halo CME that occurred on 04 November at 0905Z. Another potential shock passage is expected on 08 November resulting from the combination of the M2 and M5 x-ray events and associated partial halo CME that occurred yesterday could produce periods of minor storming. The M9/2n event that produced yet another partial halo CME that occurred today should arrive Earth on 09 November in tandem with the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream which may result in periods of minor to major storm conditions. A slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV proton flux event in association with a major flare from Region 696 remains worthy of note.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Nov a 09 Nov
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Nov 129
  Previsto   07 Nov-09 Nov  125/125/120
  Media de 90 Días        06 Nov 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Nov  001/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  001/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  025/030-020/020-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Nov a 09 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%40%
Tormenta Menor35%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%15%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%45%30%
Tormenta Menor40%25%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%15%20%

All times in UTC

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