Viendo archivo del domingo, 24 octubre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Oct 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 298 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Oct 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A M2.3 flare occurred at
24/2028 UTC from Region 687 (N12E15). Regions 682 (S12W86) and 691
(N15E59) have produced low level C-class flares. Region 682 has
rotated off the West limb. New Region 692 (S17E30) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar Activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares are possible from Region 687.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
increased from approximately 360 km/s to 500 km/s, most likely due
to a geoeffective coronal hole. A prolonged period of the
southward Bz component was responsible for the unsettled conditions
experienced.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a possibility for isolated
active periods on 25 and 26 October due to a possible glancing blow
from a CME observed on 22 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Oct a 27 Oct
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Oct 135 Previsto 25 Oct-27 Oct 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 24 Oct 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Oct 001/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Oct 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Oct a 27 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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