Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 septiembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Sep 13 2230 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Sep 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low. A C1.1 X-ray flare
occurred from Region 667 (S10W85) at 12/2227 UTC. A C1.0 flare
occurred from Region 669 (S04W81) at 13/0008 UTC. A C1.4 flare
occurred from Region 672 (N04E22) at 1339 UTC. No significant
development was observed from regions on the visible disk. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares from Region 672 are possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A shock passage
was observed at ACE at approximately 13/1935 UTC. Magnetic field at
ACE was observed to increase significantly to over 20 nT at the time
of the shock arrival at ACE, although Bz remained about zero. A 24
nT sudden impulse was observed at 2003 UTC. A 10 MeV proton event
occurred at 2005 UTC in association with the sudden impulse.
Unsettled magnetic conditions were observed subsequent to the sudden
impulse.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at minor to major storming levels on 14 September,
due to the effects of a CME arrival. Conditions should subside to
quiet to active levels on 15 and 16 of September, although isolated
minor storm conditions are possible on those days from the effects
of a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 99% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Sep 118 Previsto 14 Sep-16 Sep 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 13 Sep 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Sep 001/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 015/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 040/050-020/030-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 20% | 10% |
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