Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 agosto 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 214 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Aug 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 654 (N08W41) produced several lower level B-class flares
today with continued decay to the groups total spot area. Region
655 (S09E44) also produced lesser B-class flares and showed a slight
increase in spot cluster area measurements. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 655 has the potential to produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock
passage was observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately
01/0130Z. This transient is believed to be the result of the long
duration C2 x-ray flare that peaked at 29/1304Z from Region 652
while it was exiting the west limb. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field went south for a brief period of time
allowing for observed active periods between 01/0130 and 0300Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased
to high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Aug 083 Previsto 02 Aug-04 Aug 080/085/085 Media de 90 Días 01 Aug 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jul 007/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Aug 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 005/008-005/008-004/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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