Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 mayo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 May 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 142 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 May 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
two C-class flares: a C2 at 0551 UTC from Region 618 (S11E55) and a
C2 at 1623 UTC from Region 617 (S11W46). Region 618 has shown a slow
growth trend and Region 617 appears to be decaying. The remainder of
the solar disk and limbs were quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels for the next three days (21-23 May). Region 618 is
expected to be the main source for activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
The solar wind speed remains somewhat elevated: there was a slow
declining trend up until 1800 UTC, after which speeds increased
again, with values around 500 km/s by forecast issue time.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods at high latitudes for the next 24 hours (22 May). Unsettled
conditions should prevail for the second day (23 May) and conditions
should decline to quiet to unsettled by the third day (24 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 May a 24 May
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 May 107 Previsto 22 May-24 May 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 21 May 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 May 011/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 May 012/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 010/015-010/012-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 May a 24 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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