Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 075 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region 570
(S14W46) continues in a slow decay phase, exhibiting only occasional
minor plage fluctuations. A 10 degree filament eruption occurred at
15/0830Z from near N22W28. An associate weak CME was observed on
LASCO imagery, but it is not expected to be geoeffective. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare in
Region 570.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated
minor storm period between 15/0000 - 0300Z. Solar wind speed is
still slightly elevated, but is in slow decline. The IMF Bz was
predominantly southward near -5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Mar 101 Previsto 16 Mar-18 Mar 100/105/115 Media de 90 Días 15 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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