Viendo archivo del miércoles, 21 enero 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 021 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jan 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Flare activity was sparse, although Region 543 (S16W21) produced a C2/Sf that occurred at 21/0036Z. A slight decay was seen in this region since yesterday. Region 540 (S14W35) lost the delta structure in the trailing position of spot cluster overnight. Region 542 (N10W16) underwent no significant changes. Region 544 (N08W04) decayed slightly in penumbral coverage during the period. All spotted regions retain their beta-gamma magnetic features. A 28 degree disappearing solar filament was observed on SXI and SOHO/EIT imagery near 21/1200Z. LASCO imagery is inconclusive at this time but initial C2 data indicates there is a resulting CME from this activity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible with the onset of the anticipated shock passage, due early on 22 Jan; resulting from the long duration C-flare that occurred late on 19 Jan. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 23 Jan. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions should return by 24 Jan.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jan a 24 Jan
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Jan 130
  Previsto   22 Jan-24 Jan  130/130/125
  Media de 90 Días        21 Jan 137
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jan  011/016
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  010/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  030/045-015/025-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jan a 24 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo45%30%15%
Tormenta Menor25%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo45%35%20%
Tormenta Menor30%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%

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