Viendo archivo del domingo, 11 enero 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 011 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jan 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels today. Regions 536 (S12W54) and 537 (N05E11) produced lesser B and C-class flares today. Region 536 continues to show steady decay. The beta-gamma magnetic structure remains evident. Region 537 has changed little since yesterday, a few satellite spots in the eastern most portion of the cluster have vanished during the period. A slight counter-clockwise rotation in the spot group is evident in white light analysis. The beta-gamma/delta magnetic complex remains intact. CME activity was seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from just beyond the solar northeast limb, in the vicinity of where old Region 528 is due to return on 14 January. SXI imagery indicates potential for an active region beyond the solar southeast limb as coronal surging has been common place through much of the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. A slight chance for an isolated major flare still exists due to the magnetic complexity of both Regions 536 and 537.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream continues to enhance field conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be a quiet to active levels. Periods of isolated minor storming are possible in nighttime sectors of high latitudes. The geoeffective coronal hole should start to wane by 13 January with predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions to follow.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jan a 14 Jan
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 Jan 119
  Previsto   12 Jan-14 Jan  120/125/130
  Media de 90 Días        11 Jan 137
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jan  020/024
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  015/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jan a 14 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%20%
Tormenta Menor15%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%35%20%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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