Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 002 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S11E63) has
produced several C-class flares during the last twenty-four hours.
This region continues to grow and is currently 770 millionths of
white light coverage.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 536.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 03 January. Active to minor
storm conditions are expected for 04-05 January with activity due to
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Jan 117 Previsto 03 Jan-05 Jan 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 02 Jan 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jan 012/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 010/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 010/015-025/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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