Viendo archivo del domingo, 21 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 355 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares
were observed in Regions 525 (N09E05) and 528 (N09E37). Both regions
continue in a slow growth phase with some weak mixed polarities
noted. New Region 530 (S20E64) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from
Regions 525 and 528.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. This disturbance is
due to elevated solar wind from an elongated transequatorial coronal
hole which rotated into a geoeffective position on 20 December.
Solar wind speed now exceeds 600 km/s, but predominantly northward
IMF Bz is thwarting a more significant response in the geomagnetic
field.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels through 22
December. The coronal hole high speed solar wind flow in progress
now is expected to subside by 23 December. Quiet to unsettled
condition are likely on 23-24 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Dec 133 Previsto 22 Dec-24 Dec 140/140/140 Media de 90 Días 21 Dec 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 009/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 015/018-010/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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