Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 338 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A minor C2 flare was
observed at 03/0108Z from Region 510 (S24W69). Region 517 (S06E20)
remains the largest spot group on the visible disk but is relatively
unchanged from yesterday. New Region 519 (S08W15) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 517 and 510 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began on 02 December has ended. The proton event
began at 02/1505Z, reached a peak flux of 88.9 pfu at 02/1820Z, and
ended at 04/0000Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects may produce active conditions on 06 - 07 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Dec a 07 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Dec 116 Previsto 05 Dec-07 Dec 115/110/105 Media de 90 Días 04 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Dec 004/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 015/020-020/035-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Dec a 07 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 20% | 15% |
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