Viendo archivo del sábado, 29 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 333 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 507 (N07W69) was limited to a single C1 x-ray flare today that occurred at 29/0834Z. This region continues to show a slow, steady decay, although a delta magnetic structure is apparent in the trailing edge of the dominant spot. Region 508 (S19W57) continued to produce low level C-class flares today. The counter clockwise rotation of the central main cluster of spots ceased during the period while penumbral growth was observed throughout the later part of the period. This region continues to exhibit beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 510 (S23W02) produced minor C-class flares during the period. This region underwent some decay over the past 24 hours and remains magnetically simply structured. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater that 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active conditions are anticipated beginning on 30 Nov and continuing through 1 Dec due to a recurrent transequatorial coronal hole speed stream. 2 Dec should experience a return to predominantly quiet levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Nov a 02 Dec
Clase M30%30%25%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 Nov 166
  Previsto   30 Nov-02 Dec  160/145/130
  Media de 90 Días        29 Nov 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 Nov  005/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  010/015-012/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Nov a 02 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%25%20%
Tormenta Menor10%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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