Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 332 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Flare production was limited to C-class activity throughout the period. Region 508 (S19W44) produced the largest flare of the day, a C3 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0913Z. This region underwent a slight growth in magnetic complexity and areal coverage in the spot group over the past 24 hours. Region 507 (N07W56) produced a single event, a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0555Z. No significant changes were observed in this group during the period. Region 510 (S23E11) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 27/2210Z. This region has nearly doubled in penumbral coverage since yesterday while the magnetic field appears to remain a simply structured complex. Regions 515 (S02E68) and 516 (S17E70) were newly numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible throughout the period, mainly at higher latitudes. A transequatorial coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective by 30 Nov, enhancing the potential for isolated active periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Nov a 01 Dec
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Nov 168
  Previsto   29 Nov-01 Dec  170/165/150
  Media de 90 Días        28 Nov 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Nov  003/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  004/015-008/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Nov a 01 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%20%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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