Viendo archivo del viernes, 7 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 311 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. A long duration
X-ray enhancement was observed at 0318Z reaching the B8 level. Two
CME's were observed in LASCO imagery and determined to be back
sided. The visible disk is almost spotless with Region 495 (S18W89)
the only spot group observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Continued low level X-ray enhancements are possible due
to back side activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z and reached a peak
value of 1570 pfu on 03/0815Z, ended today at 07/1230Z. A small
enhancement of greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed at
around 07/1730Z but is currently below threshold. The source of
this enhancement is likely activity from the backside.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storms
levels possible. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08-09
November. A returning coronal hole is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position on 10 November with active to isolated minor
storm levels possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Nov a 10 Nov
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Nov 091 Previsto 08 Nov-10 Nov 090/090/095 Media de 90 Días 07 Nov 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Nov 011/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Nov 006/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/015-010/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Nov a 10 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 15% |
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