Viendo archivo del lunes, 27 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 300 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 484 (N03W54)
produced three M-class flares, including an M7.6/2n at 26/2140 UTC,
and an M2.7/2f at 27/0833 UTC that produced a CME observed on LASCO
imagery. Region 486 (S16E18) produced two major flares, an M5.0/Sf
at 27/0927 UTC and an M6.7/Sf at 27/1243 UTC. Regions 484 and 486
are stable in size and magnetic complexity. Five new regions were
numbered today: Region 488 (N09E09), Region 489 (S11E05), Region 490
(S10E25), Region 491 (S06E09), Region 492 (S22W20). Region 488 is
noteworthy for its rapid growth during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce M-class and X-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Two partial halo CME events
associated with X-class flares on 26 October may cause geomagnetic
storming on days one and two.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Oct a 30 Oct
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Oct 257 Previsto 28 Oct-30 Oct 250/250/250 Media de 90 Días 27 Oct 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Oct 005/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Oct 015/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Oct a 30 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 15% |
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