Viendo archivo del miércoles, 8 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 281 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
471 (S08W31) was responsible for all of today's recorded activity
and produced several B and C-class flares during the past 24 hours.
The largest was a C3/Sf that occurred at 07/2357 UTC. White light
showed a slight, yet steady increase in penumbral coverage during
the period. This region continues to exhibit a gamma structure near
the center of the spot cluster. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels. Region 471 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is in the waning stage.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the majority of
the period. Day three may see elevated conditions due to a solar
sector boundary crossing.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Oct a 11 Oct
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Oct 113 Previsto 09 Oct-11 Oct 110/105/105 Media de 90 Días 08 Oct 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Oct 011/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Oct 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 008/010-006/010-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Oct a 11 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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