Viendo archivo del lunes, 29 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 272 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 continues to
produce numerous C-class flares, including a long duration C3.8/Sf
at 29/2004 UTC. The region may also have produced an impulsive C5.1
at 29/1610 UTC, although the flare is not optically correlated. A
24 degree filament at S20W28 erupted between 2219 and 2319 UTC on
the 28th.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 464 may produce C- or M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one. There is a slight chance that a
CME associated with an erupting filament observed on 28 Sep may
cause unsettled to active conditions on days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Sep a 02 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Sep 135 Previsto 30 Sep-02 Oct 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 29 Sep 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 005/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Sep a 02 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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