Viendo archivo del domingo, 21 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 264 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional low-level C-class flares. Most of these were from Region
464 (N03E62) which is the largest group on the disk with an area of
430 millionths. The other regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region
464.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with a
period of minor storm at high latitudes from 1200-1500 UTC. High
speed solar wind from a coronal hole continues to drive the
activity. However, there was a gradual decline in wind speeds from
initial values of 650 km/s to day-end values of about 500 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past
24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Sep 120 Previsto 22 Sep-24 Sep 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 21 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Sep 034/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Sep 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Sep a 24 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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