Viendo archivo del miércoles, 13 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 225 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S13E17)
produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout the
period. A rapid growth in penumbra has nearly quadrupled areal
coverage in the past 24 hours (currently over 500 millionths). A
delta magnetic structure has also become apparent in the
northwestern portion of spot cluster. Region 424 (S18W80) has begun
to exit the west limb and produced only B-class flare activity
during the period. Region 432 (S05E71) was newly numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 431 is rapidly becoming capable of
producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are in response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
are possible during nighttime hours, especially at high latitudes on
day one of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Aug 131 Previsto 14 Aug-16 Aug 135/140/140 Media de 90 Días 13 Aug 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Aug 017/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 015/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 012/020-010/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 10% |
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