Viendo archivo del lunes, 11 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 223 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Several
impulsive B-class flares comprised today's flare activity. Region
424 (S18W54) has shown a slight decrease in penumbral coverage today
although it continues to exhibit beta-gamma characteristics. Region
431 (S13E43) also underwent slight decay and it too appears to
possess a beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Region 424.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the first two
days of the period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream. Day three should decrease to predominantly unsettled
conditions as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Aug 129 Previsto 12 Aug-14 Aug 130/125/120 Media de 90 Días 11 Aug 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 020/020-020/035-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 05% |
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