Viendo archivo del lunes, 23 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.comInforme conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 174 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jun 2003
IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z
Solar activity was low due to a single C1/Sf flare from
Region 388 (S01W47) at 22/2148Z. Regions 386 (S07W22), 387 (N17W03),
and 388 exhibited little change this period and produced no
significant activity. A new region emerged to the south of Region
387 and was numbered 391 (N15E03).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare
primarily from Region 386.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor
storm period between 23/03-06Z. The field was disturbed due to a
high speed coronal hole stream which peaked near 600 km/s very early
in the period and has been in slow decline since. The greater than 2
MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jun a 26 Jun
Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Jun 114
Previsto 24 Jun-26 Jun 115/115/115
Media de 90 Días 23 Jun 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jun 011/016
Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Jun 020/020
Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jun a 26 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias |
Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
B. Latitudes Altas |
Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Comments
K-indicies
The scaling problem with the Boulder magnetometer instrument has been fixed and the instrument has been redesignated as the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
< < Ir a la visión general diaria