Viendo archivo del miércoles, 18 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 169 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar

IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z

IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica

III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jun a 21 Jun

Clase M	60%	60%	60%
Clase X	20%	20%	20%
Protón	99%	50%	25%
PCAF	in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo

  Observado       18 Jun 120
  Previsto   19 Jun-21 Jun  120/120/120
  Media de 90 Días        18 Jun 125

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A

  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jun  030/050
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  035/050
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  025/035-020/025-020/025

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jun a 21 Jun

A. Latitudes Medias
Activo	40%	50%	50%
Tormenta Menor	30%	20%	20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	15%	05%	05%

B. Latitudes Altas
Activo	40%	50%	50%
Tormenta Menor	40%	30%	30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	20%	10%	10%

VII. PLAIN To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) will become the primary satellite for protons. The transition from GOES 8 to GOES 11 was scheduled for 18 June, but has been delayed until 19 June. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. MAGNETOMETER On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.

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