Viendo archivo del martes, 10 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 161 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been very high. Region 375 (N12W46) produced major flare activity including an X1.7 event at 09/2139 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep and was optically correlated with SXI imagery. The region also produced numerous M-class flares including an M5.1/2n flare at 10/1112 UTC, and an M5.6/Sf flare at 10/1815 UTC. Region 375 continued its rapid growth over the period (an increase to 1200 millionths), and maintains its delta magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15E29) increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. An optically uncorrelated Type IV radio sweep was observed at 0014 UTC. LASCO imagery observed a partial-halo CME beginning at 10/0606 UTC, most likely associated with former Region 365 (S07,L=182) on the back side of the sun. New Region 382 (S18W17) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. This activity is due to continued coronal hole high speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor storm conditions through day one. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for days two and three as solar wind speeds are expected to decrease.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Jun a 13 Jun
Clase M80%70%60%
Clase X40%20%20%
Protón20%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       10 Jun 177
  Previsto   11 Jun-13 Jun  155/150/145
  Media de 90 Días        10 Jun 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 09 Jun  020/028
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 10 Jun  025/027
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  015/020-010/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Jun a 13 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%30%
Tormenta Menor30%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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