Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 mayo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 29 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 149 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 365 (S07W45) once again produced a major flare early in the period. An X1.1/2b event occurred at 29/0105Z that had an associated Tenflare, Type IV and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1170 km/s.) radio sweeps. SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a very symmetric full halo CME resulting from the event. This region remains extremely complex (a beta-gamma-delta structure) although the penumbral coverage has shown little growth during the period. Region 368 (S32W15) also managed to produce a notable flare today, an M1.5/1f event occurred at 29/0217Z. This region did show some magnetic growth during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 365 continues to show the potential to produce major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole was responsible for the initial elevated conditions. At approximately 29/1155Z the first of two transients associated with the first two X-class flares from late on the 27th and early on the 28th passed the NASA/ACE space craft. The second occurred at approximately 29/1830Z and was responsible for the severe storm conditions seen late in the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit achieved event levels at 28/2335Z and reached a maximum of 121 pfu at 29/1530Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to major storm levels with severe storm condition anticipated. Another transient passage is expected between 30/0600 and 1200Z on day one of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes should remain above threshold levels through day one of the interval.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 May a 01 Jun
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X25%25%25%
Protón80%50%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 May 138
  Previsto   30 May-01 Jun  145/140/135
  Media de 90 Días        29 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 May  022/036
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 May  050/060
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  050/060-025/040-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 May a 01 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%50%30%
Tormenta Menor35%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%15%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%30%35%
Tormenta Menor35%35%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%30%15%

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