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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 147 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 365 (S07W19) produced two M-class events the largest of which was a long duration M1.6/1f at 0626Z. Region 365 has shown rapid growth since yesterday nearly doubling in area coverage. Mixing polarities are evident in the leader spots forming a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Analysis of LASCO imagery indicates a slow halo CME associated with the M1 flare from 26/1637Z and a faster halo CME associated with the M1.6 flare mentioned above. Estimated plane of sky speed for the fast CME was 700 km/s. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 371 (S13W10), Region 372 (S14W03), and Region 373 (N08E81).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 365 is expected to produce C-class flare and isolated M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Elevated solar wind speed near 500 km/s resulted in a disturbed geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole high speed flow is expected on day one of the period. Weak CME shock effects are possible on day two and day three of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 May a 30 May
Clase M20%25%25%
Clase X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 May 129
  Previsto   28 May-30 May  135/140/140
  Media de 90 Días        27 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 May  013/018
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 May  020/022
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 May a 30 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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