Viendo archivo del martes, 27 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 147 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 365
(S07W19) produced two M-class events the largest of which was a long
duration M1.6/1f at 0626Z. Region 365 has shown rapid growth since
yesterday nearly doubling in area coverage. Mixing polarities are
evident in the leader spots forming a beta-gamma-delta
configuration. Analysis of LASCO imagery indicates a slow halo CME
associated with the M1 flare from 26/1637Z and a faster halo CME
associated with the M1.6 flare mentioned above. Estimated plane of
sky speed for the fast CME was 700 km/s. Three new regions were
numbered today: Region 371 (S13W10), Region 372 (S14W03), and
Region 373 (N08E81).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 365 is expected to produce C-class
flare and isolated M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Elevated
solar wind speed near 500 km/s resulted in a disturbed geomagnetic
field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole
high speed flow is expected on day one of the period. Weak CME
shock effects are possible on day two and day three of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 May a 30 May
| Clase M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 May 129 Previsto 28 May-30 May 135/140/140 Media de 90 Días 27 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 May 013/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 May 020/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 May a 30 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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