Viendo archivo del jueves, 10 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 100 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity reached moderate levels. Rapidly growing
Region 326 (S12W91) produced an impulsive M2/1f flare at 09/2329
UTC. This event included a narrow CME as well as a weak Type II. The
region has since quietly rotated beyond the limb. New Region 334
(S08E69) rotated fully into view.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly active to minor storm levels. A
high-speed solar wind stream has been buffeting the magnetosphere
all day, with speeds in the 700 km/s range. Southward IMF of 10 nT
has occurred for short periods.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at active to minor storm conditions for another
24 hours. Unsettled to active conditions are anticipated the last 2
days of the interval.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Apr a 13 Apr
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Apr 103 Previsto 11 Apr-13 Apr 105/100/095 Media de 90 Días 10 Apr 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Apr 014/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Apr 020/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 020/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Apr a 13 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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