Viendo archivo del lunes, 17 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 076 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 314 (S16W39) produced
an X1/1b flare at 17/1905 UTC. The flare was accompanied by a 520
sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz. This region also produced several
C-class events over the past 24 hours. Sunspots continued to grow
and the delta configuration in the trailer spots had intensified
since yesterday. Other disk regions were relatively quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is likely in Region 314, including the
possibility of another major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels
under the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind
speeds remained above 600 km/s and Bz fluctuated between +/- 10 nT.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active over the next 24 hours with the
possibility of minor storm periods. Activity levels are expected to
abate by the end of the three-day forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Mar a 20 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Mar 125 Previsto 18 Mar-20 Mar 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 17 Mar 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Mar 012/023 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Mar 025/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Mar a 20 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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