Viendo archivo del jueves, 2 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 002 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only one C-class event occurred
during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 1306 UTC. SOHO/EIT images suggest
that newly assigned Region 242 (S08E61) was the source for the
event. New Region 241 (S25W40) was assigned today. Region 239
(S09W17) continues to be the largest group on the disk with an area
of 70 millionths.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind density,
velocity, and total magnetic field showed a steady increase
beginning around 1700 UTC. This may mark the beginning of a
corotating interaction associated with a favorably positioned
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high
levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active over the next two days
due to coronal hole effects. A decline to mostly unsettled is
expected by the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Jan 118 Previsto 03 Jan-05 Jan 120/125/125 Media de 90 Días 02 Jan 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 012/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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