Viendo archivo del miércoles, 25 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 359 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4.8 flare at 25/0546 UTC. Two of the
most active regions over the past week, Region 224 (S14W92) and
Region 226 (S28, L=122), rotated beyond the west limb today. Region
230 (S08W50) continues to decay and has lost its trailing spots.
The region is now a simple Hax spot group with an alpha magnetic
configuration. New Region 235 (N13E28) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at unsettled levels. One
period of isolated active conditions occurred. Solar wind velocity
gradually decreased throughout the day from 540 km/s to 440 km/s and
Bz was slightly negative for most of the day. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. A large positive polarity coronal
hole will rotate into a geo-effective position on day two of the
period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected for day two and
day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Dec a 28 Dec
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Dec 132 Previsto 26 Dec-28 Dec 130/125/120 Media de 90 Días 25 Dec 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Dec 014/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Dec 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 010/015-015/018-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Dec a 28 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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