Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 diciembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 355 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Dec 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 226 (S28W54)
produced most of today's observed activity, a C4.6/1f occurring at
21/0453 UTC was the largest flare during the period. The
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure remains intact although much
decay was noted in spot groups areal coverage today. Region 229
(N19W29) continues to show steady decay and was fairly quiescent
today. Region 230 (S08E06) underwent little change but remains a
beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 232 (N13W08) was newly assigned
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 226 and 230 are capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to active levels as
the geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream wanes. Middle and
high latitudes experienced storming conditions between 21/0300 and
0600 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for day one of the
forecast period. The CME from the M2.7 flare late on 19 December is
expected to arrive early to mid-day on 22 December. Predominantly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Dec 184 Previsto 22 Dec-24 Dec 185/180/180 Media de 90 Días 21 Dec 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 012/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 025/025-012/015-006/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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