Viendo archivo del jueves, 5 diciembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 339 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Dec 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event during the period. Region 213 (N14E50) produced an impulsive M2/2n event, with associated tenflare and Type II/IV radio sweeps, at 04/2249 UTC. The region appears to be a relatively small sunspot group with minor magnetic complexity, near the somewhat larger Region 212 (N12E35) which remained quiescent during the period. Single C- and B-class x-ray enhancements were also observed without optical correlation later in the period, but otherwise the x-ray emissions from the sun have remained relatively flat. Two new regions were numbered today: 214 (N12W27) and 215 (S18E74). The latter appears to be a return of old Region 191 (S18, L=203) but limb proximity prevents detailed analysis.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with an increasing trend in chances for isolated moderate flare activity over the course of the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Flux levels for greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were observed to briefly exceed threshold for high values around the time of local satellite noon.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through day two of the forecast period, with a trend toward more active conditions by day three, due to expected coronal hole effects. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be below the high value threshold for the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Dec a 08 Dec
Clase M30%30%35%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Dec 149
  Previsto   06 Dec-08 Dec  160/170/175
  Media de 90 Días        05 Dec  169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Dec  007/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Dec  009/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  008/012-012/015-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Dec a 08 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%25%35%
Tormenta Menor01%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%30%40%
Tormenta Menor05%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%

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